The
“Wild West” and UT at South Bend
By
Jeff Sallas
Two crucial
West games and Tennessee visiting the “hallowed ground” of Notre Dame highlight
the schedule this week. The West games
are the most interesting though. West
leader Auburn is off this week and will watch while the contenders establish
position. A win by Ole Miss ties them
with Auburn although they will still really be one game behind. A loss by Ole Miss would hurt pretty
bad. Meanwhile a win by LSU or Bama
vaults them solidly into third place.
The loser will be out of the race entirely. Whoever loses the Bama/LSU game will be the one hurting the most
after this week.
Not much
going on in the East conference-wise.
There is the UT game, Vandy going to Gainesville, Kentucky taking on
Miss St and South Carolina making up their September 15th game. Well I went 3-2 last week missing Ole Miss
and Arkansas. That puts me at 41-14
(75%) for the season. Here are the
picks for this week...
LSU at
Bama - The game of the week (Saturday at 2:30 CDT on CBS)
The biggest
game of the week by far. This is a
“loser goes home” kind of game. It is
also a tale of 2 very different teams.
Bama comes into this game rested after an off-week and still pretty
hungry by all accounts. LSU on the
other hand comes in battered and bleeding.
The Tigers took their toughest loss of the Saban era to Ole Miss at
home. It wasn’t so much the loss but it
was the way they lost. The Rebels
pushed them all over their home field.
LSU also has
multiple injuries at RB and coach Nick Saban is begging for patience. The defense just seems to be completely
asleep. They have been a complete
disappointment. First year defensive
coordinator Gary Gibbs might not get a second year. I have been on the LSU bandwagon for most of the season. But seeing them get pushed around their own
home field was an eye-opener. To win
this game LSU must show more heart than they have all season.
Bama on the
other hand seems determined to not let this season end like the last. I don’t think it will. The state media have been determined to
compare Bama’s 4th quarter against UT to the meltdowns against Ole
Miss and South Carolina. I just don’t
agree. Against Ole Miss and South
Carolina, Bama was the dominant team for most of the game and then gave up big
plays at the end. Against UT they just
got beaten down by a better team. UT
was stronger and had more depth.
Another
important fact is that the winner of this game still has a legitimate shot
albeit a long shot at Atlanta. Obviously
LSU has some problems but they do have a few things going for them. Their strengths on offense and defense seem
to match up with Bama’s weaknesses. LSU
has a better passing offense and I think Bama’s defense is better against the
run. LSU has a better rushing defense
and Bama is most definitely a running team.
There is not
much doubt that with a good passing game and hurt RBs LSU is probably going to
air it out. It is sure what I would
do. I think they should get Davey
rolling early and just keep throwing it.
His number one target, Josh Reed, has been awesome most of the
year. However Ole Miss pretty much shut
him down. I am sure Bama has been
analyzing that game tape. Regardless,
LSU’s only chance in my mind is to air it out.
On the other
side Bama should do exactly what they have been doing. Run straight at an LSU defense that appears
to have no heart. Pound them over and
over again. I think the LSU defense
will break. Also if I was Bama I would
be starting Santonio Beard. He is obviously
their best running back. Give me a
break about how he “blocks”. I just
have one thing to say about that “Shaun Alexander”. One of the greatest playmakers in Bama history sat the bench for
2 seasons because he couldn’t “block”.
I would also try to get the TE going since Ole Miss’ TE was their
leading receiver last week.
This is
really not too hard of a pick. I would
be very surprised if LSU won. I think
Bama is the better team and has the better attitude at the moment. In fact it wouldn’t surprise me if this one
didn’t stay close. While this would not
be the big win Bama is looking for, it would be a very solid win.
BAMA OVER LSU
Arkansas
at Ole Miss (Saturday at 6:00 CDT on ESPN2)
In one week
everything has changed for Ole Miss.
For the first time in 20+ years the Ole Miss Rebels are a legitimate
contender for an SEC title. They have
gone from talented underdog to pressured favorite. This will be their first game in their new role. Luckily it is at home. Ole Miss has not fared well as the favorite
over the last few years. I think this
is a very important game for the Ole Miss program.
The Rebels
are playing very well right now. They
had everything going good on Saturday night against LSU. The offense led by Eli Manning is really gelling
at this point. The weak link which has
been the defense came through big time as well. They continually blitzed and harassed LSU QB Rohan Davey. It was by far the best game of the year for
the Ole Miss defense. The special teams
look to be fairly solid although I think they have a freshman kicker.
On the other
hand, I still do not think the Arkansas Razorbacks are a very good team. In fact I think they are the worst team in
the SEC outside of Kentucky, Vandy and maybe Miss St this year. They played a great defensive game against
South Carolina and certainly came ready to play against Auburn. However they have no gamebreakers on
offense. It is simple as that. They were good enough to beat the snot out
of Auburn thanks to some of the worst coaching I have ever seen.
Arkansas QB
Zak Clark is still the worst in the SEC.
The Arkansas RB corps is decent but the OL is awful. Even blowing away Auburn the RBs both only
had about 50 yards rushing. I think the
game against Auburn was one of the first times the WRs actually got to catch
some passes. They need to send the
Auburn coaching staff thank you notes for the pitiful soft coverages. The Arkansas defense is one of the better
ones in the SEC but the offense is an albatross around their neck.
I would hope
Ole Miss head coach David Cutcliffe would learn from his predecessor at Ole
Miss and send the house at the Razorbacks.
Don’t sit back and hope that Arkansas will play bad but force the issue. The Rebels should blitz Zak Clark as much as
they did Rohan Davey. He has not proven
he can burn the blitz at all. Make him
beat you. Even when they are not
blitzing the Rebels should stack the line.
Again they must learn from Auburn and play aggressive.
The Arkansas
defense might give Eli Manning a few problems.
They seem to be a bit better against the pass than the run. They have good corners and seem to have a
decent pass rush. However I think their
defensive front is a bit undersized and that might mean a big game for Ole Miss
RBs Joe Gunn and Charles Stackhouse.
This should be a pretty good game.
However unless Ole Miss locks up like Auburn there should be no way
Arkansas outscores the Rebels.
OLE MISS OVER
ARKANSAS
Tennessee
at Notre Dame (Saturday at 1:30 CDT on NBC)
Love them or
hate them, and most SEC fans hate them, playing the Irish is always a big
game. Some teams in the SEC think they
have a corner on tradition but Notre Dame can probably claim more than anyone. The golden domers’ troubles this year are
pretty well documented. They lost a
tough game to Boston College last weekend, they have a losing record and it is
widely rumored that head coach Bob Davie is finished. However Notre Dame still has a pretty good team and is at home.
The Vols are
fresh off 2 tough hard fought wins over Bama and South Carolina. They are back in the hunt for another SEC
title and a place in the BCS. Another
good win here would definitely help their national standing. However as Florida showed against Auburn, it
is tough to get up 3 games in a row.
The UT coaches have definitely had the team up the last 2 weeks. So even though they are playing Notre Dame I
am looking for a bit of a letdown.
These 2 teams
played some classic games in the early 90s but the last time they played it
wasn’t close. The last game in
Knoxville two years ago the Big Orange simply ground the Irish into the
dirt. It was one of the only times I
have ever seen Notre Dame just physically overmatched. UT comes into this game with another strong
running game. Travis Stephens as always
will be the focal point of the offense and WR Kelley Washington should get
plenty of touches as well.
The Irish are
still primarily a running team. They
average 186 yards on the ground and 108 through the air. They have still been a pretty good team this
year. Their losses have all been to
good teams and all of them except Mich St came on the road. However Notre Dame’s starting QB is banged
up and was hurt last week against Boston College. However he is still supposed to start against the Vols.
I think UT is
much more talented than the Irish.
However I really am expecting a letdown from the Vols and Notre Dame is
a better team than they are getting credit for. I think there are a lot of players from Notre Dame that remember
the whipping they got from UT a couple of years ago. I also can’t shake the bad record the SEC has had in big games
like this the last couple of years. I
think the Vols are walking into a trap and a tough schedule usually takes it’s
toll...
NOTRE DAME
OVER TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt
at Florida (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
The Gators
return home after a hard fought win over Georgia. Sandwiched between that battle and another tough one at South
Carolina is Vandy at home. You would
think that would mean a Florida romp but you never know. Vandy nearly upset the Gators 2 years ago as
they were driving for the winning TD with less than 2 minutes left. Florida ended up stopping them. I think the score was 13-7. It had to be the least points Florida has
scored at home since Spurrier has been there.
Unfortunately
for Vandy this is a different Florida team and they don’t have near as good a
defense. I mean it is almost automatic
now that Grossman will have 300+ yards with Gaffney or Caldwell getting 100
yard receiving. However while they have
been running up the stats the Gators were not at their best against Auburn or
Georgia. I look for the dam to burst on
Saturday. I think the “Fun ‘n Gun” will
be in high gear.
The
Commodores took a different strategy into Duke last week. They have been primarily a passing team but
abandoned that for a more run-oriented strategy. For the first time probably since Gerry Dinardo left, Vandy ran
the ball 40 times in a game. RBs Rodney
Williams and Lew Thomas both had 100+ yards rushing. I think this strategy probably would have won Vandy a few more
games over the past few years but unfortunately it is probably too late now for
Widenhofer...
FLORIDA OVER
VANDY
Kentucky
at Miss St (Saturday at 1:30 CDT)
Something
will break in this game, both teams are 0-5 in the SEC. It was expected of Kentucky but never
suspected of State. I guess the season
has boiled down to trying to get one or two good wins to go into the off-season
with. It is really hard on the players
in situations like this because you have to work so hard to play at this level
and losing is not fun. Kentucky is
pretty much just looking for any win.
They only play one more contender in UT.
Things are
different for State who have 3 tough divisional games left. State still has something to play for. It sure would make everybody involved at
State feel better if they could take down a Bama, Arkansas or especially Ole
Miss. I think a lot of eyes in
Starkville are already turning toward that Thanksgiving showdown with Ole Miss
in Starkville. However State can’t
afford to look past this week, not after a loss to Troy St.
Kentucky has
played pretty solid football under Guy Moriss.
They should come in loose and play a pretty good game. Jared Lorenzen is back at the helm at QB and
is now an experienced SEC player. I
think this will be a close game. If
State is ever going to get it’s offense going, it better be now. A week off should have been good for
playmaker Dicenzo Miller. I look for a
surprisingly hard fought game here.
Although it shouldn’t be that surprising this series has been very good
the last few years. It should be close
but I will take State at home since I don’t think it will be raining... (-:
MISS ST OVER
KENTUCKY
Wofford
at South Carolina (Saturday at 12:00
CDT)
This looks to
be a stirring matchup. I know nothing
about Wofford except they have been around for a long time. I think SEC teams played them pretty
regularly in the 1940s and 50s. They
are basically subbing for Bowling Green who South Carolina was supposed to play
on September 15th. Last
week’s loss to UT hurt but with Florida coming to town next week there is no
time to waste. I think South Carolina
will obviously look to get up early and play a lot of people so they have
everybody healthy for next week. Not
much else to say about this one...
SOUTH CAROLINA OVER WOFFORD